PAKISTAN: Winter rains alleviate drought conditions

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

ISLAMABAD, 4 Apr 2005 (IRIN) - Higher than average winter rainfall has pulled Pakistan out of drought conditions which had plagued the country for seven years. The drought caused a water shortage of up to 50 percent last year, according to the country's leading water authority.

"The water supply is satisfactory now. We have enough water for summer cultivation. Besides, we will be able to carry some over in our reservoirs for the coming winter’s agricultural requirements," Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, a research officer at the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), told IRIN in the capital Islamabad, on Monday.

The seven-year long water crisis had also been exacerbated by a range of other issues related to policy and management of available water, according to water experts.
However, torrential rains and snowfall of around 30 to 40 percent above normal across the country’s northern hilly terrain have increased water supply for this year's agricultural requirements.

"At an average of up to 160 percent above normal, rainfall has alleviated the severe drought conditions in [southern] Balochistan province, while as a whole, the country has received 65 percent more rain than under the normal winter pattern," Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, head of Pakistan's meteorological department, told IRIN in Islamabad.

However, experts have ruled out any flood threat in coming months. "Heavy snowfall alone cannot be associated with floods. It’s premature to calculate any flooding threat at this point," Asjad Imtiaz Ali, chief engineer at the Federal Flood Commission, told IRIN in Islamabad.

Ali further noted, "It largely depends on the frequency and timing of summer monsoon rains. Snowmelt contributes 70 to 75 percent to Indus water and only if a heavy monsoon coincides with that period would we perhaps face any flooding, but it’s too early to say."

Although the recent wet spell has been sufficient to meet this year's requirements, water experts remain concerned about water availability in the long run as the country has lost up to 23 percent of storage capacity due to silting of the major Mangla and Terbela reservoirs and at the smaller Chashma reservoir.

"Over the last five years, a natural drought, combined with our day-by-day declining water storage capacity, aggravated the situation. With full capacity we were able to store up to 14 MAF [million-acre feet], which has now been reduced to 12 MAF," Rana said noting, "we've no other way to make up the shortage."

The IRSA official further said that in 2003 about 20 MAF of water was discharged into the Arabian Sea, but the following year was dry. "This year, again we are anticipating that some 24 MAF of water would go down the Indus river after feeding all our reservoirs and agricultural requirements," Rana said.

The quantity of fresh water flowing down the Indus has long been a matter of dispute between the provinces, as well as among federal authorities. The IRSA is still conducting a review to look at the issues of sea intrusion and of environmental impact on the Indus Delta's ecosystem, attributed to declining Indus water flow into the Arabian Sea.

Source: http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=46450&SelectRegion=Asia&SelectCo