The lifelines of both Pakistan and India — Siachen and Gangotri glaciers — are rapidly retreating and melting endangering the lives of people of the two countries because of the ongoing military activity at the highest flashpoint of the world, revealed a study conducted by Arshad H Abbasi, a consultant for the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

Gangotri is the second largest glacier in the world from where the Ganges originates which is not only sacred for Hindus but also caters to the irrigational needs of India.

Siachen is the longest glacier in the non-polar regions from where the Nubara river originates and is a source of the Indus river in Pakistan. The Indus river is the lifeline of Pakistan as it caters to 75 per cent of its irrigational requirements.

"Siachen is weeping, tomorrow the world will cry," this is the nutshell of the study.

The study says melting is not due to global warming; rather it is caused by human activity because of the Siachen war between Pakistan and India which started in 1983.

Well-placed sources in the Ministry of Water and Power confirmed the shocking development on condition of anonymity. They disclosed that the Pakistan Meteorological Department on November 25 last year informed the government that the Himalayan glaciers, particularly Siachen, have been receding for the last 30 years, with losses accelerating to alarming levels in the past decade.

"We are very much concerned over the development, but human activity with regard to the Siachen war could not be stopped until and unless the peoples of the two countries exert pressure upon their respective governments to stop the war," sources said.

The study, painting a grim picture with regards to water, food and energy security of Pakistan, says effects of glaciers' melting are already evident in the form of worst calamities during the last twenty years or so. But in coming years, both increased floods and increased droughts are expected, as the rainy season dumps more water.

The rivers of the subcontinent will see an increase in extreme rainfall. Rainwater just creates floods and is not there when needed in the dry season.

The Bay of Bengal will get more cyclones, especially in the post-monsoon season, and winds will be faster and stronger. Crops will have to be rethought; water saving techniques developed and flood controls and sewage systems redesigned.

The infrastructure will also take a big hit, with roads, railways and ports, all vulnerable. Temperature increases can weaken building material. Sea level will rise and increased rainfall can cause flooding and water-logging, resulting in structural damage, erosion and increase risk of collapse.

All this will result in an added burden to the power supply as irrigation systems and construction crews fight to maintain the status quo.

Disputes between states, already snarling at each other over power and water-sharing, will only get worse as water supplies become even more erratic and power, especially hydro, becomes unreliable. Internal migration will increase. Farmers, already suffering badly, will be hit even harder.

Deforestation and unsuitable land use is already making an atrocious situation unsustainable and increasing risks of flooding, landslides and erosion.

During the last two decades, the melting of Siachen glacier has now been bracketed amongst the fastest in the world. Its retreat is evident from the snout (base of the glacier) and through the continuous thinning of ice along its entire length. Siachen, along with several other major tributary glaciers, reduced their volume by 35 per cent during the last twenty years and retreating at the rate of 110 metres per year.

The retreat can also be seen when satellite images taken in different years are compared.

Hydrological analyses too are substantiating this glacier melt. A study on temperature trends of high altitude stations in this region shows temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.20 degrees centigrade annually.

The extraordinary melting of Siachen and other major tributary glaciers is caused by human activity and is not due to natural changes.

It has not only led to formations of glacial lakes and snow hole, but is responsible for destructive snow avalanches on both side of the Saltoro ridge.

When contacted, Lieutenant-General (retd) Talat Masud, defence analyst, said the human activity of armed forces of both the countries has put the glaciers — the most precious water reserves — in danger.

He said there is no bird and animal life on glaciers, but human activity is going on which is destroying the nature.

He suggested that civil society and media of both countries should come up with a campaign to make their peoples alive to the dire consequences of melting and receding of glaciers and exert pressure on their respective governments to pull troops out of the Siachen glacier and make it a 'peace park'.